Let me take just a minute to fulfill my promise to mention the role of the microchip with the “new” pumpers that I think are coming (from the Morning Lineups HERE and HERE).  I don’t have any specific predictions of what the engine builders will be doing with them because you just can’t tell where other people’s imaginations and ingenuity will be going.

But the remarkably rapid adoption of new uses and better operations by motors, gadgets and power accessories of all kinds that are controlled by microchips will create a demand for upgrading equipment sooner.  With the noticable increase of efficiency and job ability that will come with each electronic improvement, there will be a desire by fire (and ambulance) departments to go ahead and upgrade whenever the “latest advances” accumulate to say, 10 or 12 neat things that really are worthwhile improvements.

I don’t know if I’m making myself clear about this, but it amounts to predicting that within a few years, after this economic adjustment is settled, departments that have downsized to the smaller and less expensive fire engines will be more likely to replace their trucks sooner than they do now.  This will be from a combination of being offered more-affordable apparatus combined with so many improvements that it becomes practical to turn over the fleet every 4 or 5 years instead of the current 7 to 10 years.  The firetruck builders who are geared up for this type of offering will be the ones that survive into the next era of pumpers.

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And speaking of microchips, don’t forget the amazing advances in the technological ability of GPS receivers these days.  They are becoming more and more accurate in their reporting of exact placement.  Already they are good enough for dispatching purposes where some departments have onboard transmitters that can place a truck within a few feet of its actual location.  Computerized dispatch systems are using it to send “nearest units” on all calls now.  (And battalion chiefs are finding out where you’re hiding, too.)

I read somewhere that there is a product like a bracelet that people can put on their children making it easier to keep them from becoming lost if they get separated in a place like an amusement park or large shopping mall.   What a good opportunity for someone to refine it to the point where you can pinpoint exactly a firefighter’s location in a builiding.  You can just imagine the advantages that would be for both mayday situations and strategic decisions being made by the incident commander.

Well, I don’t need a GPS receiver to find the coffee pot.  So I’ll go fire up the Bunn-O-Matic while you get this ancient, outdated equipment checked out.

My chat yesterday about the future of fire pumpers and their downsizing brought a few comments and lots of emails.  Even some speculation that the ambulances might get back to basics, too.  But I don’t think they were serious suggestions.

But to wrap it up, I think that this change in direction for fire engines has been percolating for a while, but nobody has temerity to step up and say that they want just a pumper and not all the add-ons.  Because, you see, everybody likes to show the citizenry that they have the latest and the best.  And for some people, biggest equals bestest.

This sudden financial crunch is hastening the change back to basics, though.  But there just might be an upheaval in the supply system that will bring an even more profound change, and that’s the matter of who will be making these newer fire wagons.  We all know that a couple of the remaining major firetruck builders are on fragile financial situations right now, and this sudden drop-off in orders will certainly cause some sleepless nights for a few people.  I keep thinking about when the Feds decided back in the 1970′s that fire trucks needed to undergo the same type of crash-testing the automobiles undergo before they could be marketed.  That was also during an economic downturn and several of our firetruck builders had no choice but to close up shop.  Sayanora Peter Pirsch and Ward LaFrance.

American LaFrance is probably one of the shakiest right now, but last year they pre-emptorily shifted their production lines back to a couple of smaller facilities in a cost-saving move.  But they cannot afford to go long without actually selling any trucks, so this will be a test.  Seagrave has also been pretty wobbly lately, surviving mainly by a few contracts with municipal departments that purchase several engines and trucks at a time.  But these same cities are also bankrupt now and are closing firehouses instead of ordering new stuff.  I’d be willing to bet that Seagrave will pull back to an aerial-only production in an attempt to keep open.  How successfull that will be I’ll leave to you to guess.

So we’ll end up with two groups of firetruck builders.  One will be the surviving “big guys” who have the capitalization to make it through the lean times along with the ability to quickly shift production into the “new” design.

Coming soon ….

The other group will be the hometown shops that will be stepping up to try and fill the gap.  I’m referring to the small, family firms that are currently building brush trucks and quick-attack vehicles.  They are already producing NFPA-compliant trucks and have the instituional knowledge of what is desired by the fire departments in their region of the country.  Look for a resurgence of the mini-pumper (with a 4-man cab now attached) and in a year or so you’ll be getting visits at the firehouse on meeting nights with the traveling salesman bringing one by for you to check out and pet.

I’m late again today, so we’ll finish up tomorrow and I’ll tell you where the microchip fits in to all of this.  Let’s get this equipment checked out now.  I need to get some more coffee going.

I have a prediction.  It’s a combination short-term and long-range prediction.  Mind you, I have a pretty good record when it comes to long-range predictions on all sorts of topics.  But I usually slip a bit on the short-term ones.  But then, so does the weather forecaster and they get paid a lot more than the average firefighter/EMT.

My prognostication has to do with fire engines.  Not ladder trucks or giant foam applicators, but the basic pumper.  There will soon be a definite trend back to the smaller, more maneuverable fire pump that will have fewer added-on features and less compartment space.

ODHFS

This change in design will be brought about by both financial pressures and the advance of the microchip.  The financial angle is looming up immediately with the sudden decline in real estate tax revenues which are the basic income for municipalities that buy fire engines.  Compounding the dollar squeeze is the high cost (and getting higher) of the monster engines that are now as large as a transcontinental passenger bus.

Already many purchasing agencies have postponed their planned replacement orders because they are short of funds now and have no problem with getting one or two more years out of existing equipment.  After all, we’ve always been very adept and keeping fire engines in service for 20 years at times.  So keeping an 8-yr.-old pumper going for another couple of years won’t be too big a task.

As far as the smaller communities and volunteer departments go, many of them have upgraded over the past ten years to the super-size engines of today, but now that replacement time is coming around, they flat-out don’t have the money to even think about ordering a new one.  Thus the demand now climbing for good, used fire engines.

But any day now, there will be a mighty “bolt from the blue” that will jolt firetruck buyers everywhere who will ask themselves, “Do we really have to buy such a big, expensive fire engine?”   After all, its main purpose is to carry hose lines and pump water.  So why not go back to basics and just order the necessities?  If a firetruck builder can offer a Class A pumper at half the price they were selling for last year, then they have an opportunity there to make some sales.  Imagine selling your humongous fire engine to another FD and getting enough cash to pay for a new one?

This trend will lead to the return of the regional small shops that build good fire engines on commercial chassis.  A return to the days of Darley, Boardman, Oren, etc.  Ah, now we’re rolling.  I’ve got more reasons for this next trend, and I haven’t even covered the role of the microchip yet.  We’ll resume this discussion tomorrow.

Right now we’ve got to check out the equipment we’ve already got.  And I’ll go make some more coffee.